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SPC MD 715

[html]MD 0715 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 231... FOR CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
       

Mesoscale Discussion 0715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...Central to East-Central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 231...

Valid 061550Z - 061715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 231 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase late this morning into
the early afternoon across parts of central and east-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection has resulted in increasing
instability along the warm front in central/east-central Texas with
low 70s dewpoints now present across this region. Cloud cover has
limited heating thus far, but some breaks in the clouds have beco*e
apparent and should allow for heating into the early afternoon. A
mature supercell already exists along this frontal zone in Bell
County, Texas. Expect this cell to continue east along the front
with an increasing tornado threat through the afternoon. Additional
development has already started to the southwest with some hints of
additional development farther east along the front. By later this
afternoon, expect several supercells along and south of the warm
front with a primary threat for large hail and tornadoes (some of
which could be strong).

The primary limiting factor based on 12Z forecast soundings was
moist/neutral lapse rates in the low levels. However, at least some
heating is already apparent south of the front which could result in
low 80s temperatures and more favorable low-level lapse rates.
Therefore, concern is increasing for an evolving tornado threat
across east-central Texas.

..Bentley.. 05/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30969806 31369711 31399570 31279530 30919512 30159504
            29589507 29479653 29549797 29559828 29659858 29849859
            30969806 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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Source: SPC MD 715 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0715.html)