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SPC May 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
     

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the
Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe
winds are the main hazards.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken
on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the
central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high
across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the
potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface
boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the
afternoon.

...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast...
A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward
towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be
weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong
surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote
isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts
of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to
severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear
mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions
would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse
rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low.

...Oklahoma...
With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the
afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective
development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence
beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this
time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended
a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will
be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence
in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central
Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast
Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is
rather conditional.

...Central into East Texas...
East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are
possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern
will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy
will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is
highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as
height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of
convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the
Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak.

..Wendt.. 05/06/2025

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Source: SPC May 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html)