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SPC MD 1645

[html]MD 1645 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO
       

Mesoscale Discussion 1645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Lower Michigan and adjacent portions of Indiana and
Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160411Z - 160615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching MCV may
pose a severe hail/wind threat heading into the early morning hours.
Trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection across northern IN/southern MI within a warm
advection branch ahead of an approaching MCV (currently over lower
Lake Michigan) has shown signs of periodic intensification over the
past 1-2 hours based on trends in GOES IR imagery and vertically
integrated ice. Nocturnal cooling has been somewhat muted by
high-quality low-level moisture already in place across northern IN
into lower MI (dewpoints in the low 70s), resulting in only a weakly
capped environment based on a modified 00 UTC DTX sounding. Despite
somewhat poor hodograph structure above 4 km, around 40 knots of
effective bulk shear should support some storm organization with any
cells that can remain more discrete within the narrow warm advection
regime. Consequently, a severe hail and wind risk may persist across
lower MI for the next several hours. Convective trends -
particularly storm mode - will continue to be monitored for the need
for watch issuance later tonight.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41148477 41468498 41738524 41938561 42178575 42538554
            42758506 42908445 42938406 42928372 42878329 42668290
            42328280 41998290 41588322 41378353 41248394 41148477 

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Source: SPC MD 1645 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1645.html)