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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration
fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend
through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical
fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as
an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the
Pacific Coast.
...Southern CA...
Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are
forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the
new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a
large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the
Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great
Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off.
Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff
low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various
solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough
upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong
low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity
should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily
intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for
another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical
fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA
Mountains.
Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early
D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In co*bination
with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph
are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor
humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass.
Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong
winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the
potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the
western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday.
Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low
gradually moves offshore and winds aloft beco*e more southeasterly.
This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored
corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may
persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as
late as D6/Thursday.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a
related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its
wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally
maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period.
Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward
are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA...
...20z Update...
Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing at the start of the
period with offshore gusts of 25-50 mph through the terrain-favored
corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds should begin to
weaken midday and into the evening before stronger gusts reemerge
into early D3/Monday. Continued poor RH recoveries and downslope
warming will keep the air mass dry with RH below 25%. Critical
fire-weather concerns are likely, especially near active fires.
..Lyons.. 01/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S.
through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a
surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern
California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind
speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be co*mon in the higher terrain
areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of
Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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