Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of IA into extreme northwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190937Z - 191130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong thunderstorm gusts are possible
early this morning.

DISCUSSION...An arc of elevated convection has recently intensified
from west-central into eastern IA, aided by ascent attendant to a
powerful cyclone moving across KS, and within an environment
characterized by MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg and cold temperatures
aloft. Increasing midlevel flow northeast of the cyclone is
supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, assuming a sufficiently deep
updraft. Some transient storm organization will remain possible
through the early morning, with a favorable thermodynamic
environment for production of small to isolated severe hail, as
noted earlier north of Omaha. Localized strong gusts also cannot be
ruled out with any more organized and sustained cells.

..Dean/Thompson.. 03/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42609501 43149325 42999171 41919009 40439084 41449350
            41949503 42189528 42609501 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5...
A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday
and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern
Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm
development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday
afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass
from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible within the more organized co*ponents of a developing MCS.
The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower
Mississippi valley during the overnight period.

...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
On Monday, the trough is forecast to beco*e amplified across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through
the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the
central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms
are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the
eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make
conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the
continental U.S.